Speculation the free-to-air network is on the brink of collapse has been swirling since even before Ten revealed the network had made a half yearly loss and is on track to make a $30 million loss this fiscal year.
It's true that Ten must secure an extension or new loan facility (the current $200 million facility expires in December) to remain a going concern, but there are several reasons why this isn't the doom and gloom scenario that some are suggesting.
For starters, Ten's signal won't switch off even if it can't sort out its short-term financial woes. In the worst case (and unlikely) scenario receivers are called in, their focus will be on getting the best deal possible for creditors, which means finding a new owner that the government's media reform package could help facilitate.
Keeping the motor running on Ten's signal will be at the top of their agenda.
Secondly, there's too many highly influential media magnates with vested interests in Ten for the broadcaster to be put into receivership.
Although Ten's tent pole ratings disaster The Biggest Loser: Transformed could have a short-term impact on advertising dollars, this is more of a short-term blip than terminal decline and must be placed into broader context of Ten's performance to date.
The network enjoyed one of its strongest starts to the year on the back of the hugely popular Big Bash League and solid gains in I'm A Celebrity...Get Me Out of Here. This follows on from a stellar 2016 where Ten had the strongest audience share growth of all three commercial networks.
Media buyers and sources have told AdNews they are confident Ten will be bounce back, as it has done before, and that in spite of the bad press, advertising sales are on track for a “good” calendar year, including a solid second half.
Ten's prime time ratings share, which dropped below the ABC when the Biggest Loser flopped, has already picked up with MasterChef, which has consistently delivered national ratings well above one million per episode and had an halo effect on The Project.
Ratings are predicted to remain solid for The Bachelor and The Bachelorette, starring Sophie Monk.
Ten's market value, which fell below $100 million on the back of its half yearly announcements, will take longer than its ratings to restore, but the network has shown some positive signs, such as its improved power ratio – the ability to commercialise audience share gains – to a rating of 1.0.
Planned changes to abolish TV broadcasting licence fees and a loosening of cross-media ownership rules withing Mitch Fifield's media reform package are also good omens.
The real problem
Biggest Loser aside, Ten's problems are not all about ratings or ad sales; the Achilles heel has been cost control – spending more to acquire and produce content than what has been returned.
Ten's costs increased by 7.4% in the first half of FY17 while its revenue grew by only 2.1%. This is in a challenged advertising market that declined 5% the past quarter. Whichever way you look at it, the figures don't add up.
Not all of Ten's rise in costs are necessarily a bad investment. An example of this is Australian Survivor, arguably one of Ten's top two shows in terms of production value - but not ratings.
Australian Survivor was filmed in Samoa over 26 episodes, a logistically challenging and costly venture. It pulled out all stops to make sure this reboot of the popular American franchise didn't flop like previous attempts on Nine and Seven in the early Noughties.
The show's metro ratings hovered between mid-600,000s to mid-700,000s for most of the season, with impressive gains in catch-up of around 70,000 to 90,000 per episode. It's a solid audience but probably not quite at the level it deserved or Ten executives would have hoped.
Ten programmers will hope that the first season has set a foundation to build audience in season two later this year.
Ten's faith in producing high quality local content cannot be faulted and was a necessary step after a period in the programming doldrums a few years ago. Savings may be achieved on local productions but compromising on quality is fraught with risk.
What's really hurt Ten in terms of escalating costs, according to sources in the know, are long-term content deals with US production houses, such as CBS and Fox.
According to Fairfax Media, Ten spends more than $100 million alone on these two cable TV giants with their content value diminishing by the year.
Ten relies more on these shows than Seven or Nine because it doesn't have the scale to produce as much local content.
US shows used to deliver much stronger ratings when these deals were negotiated five years ago, but today viewers increasingly go to Netflix, Stan and Foxtel for their US drama fix. Amazon Prime Video's move into Australia only further devalues these deals.
Cost-cutting options
Ten could look to save costs by working more closely with News Corp assets. Ten already works with Foxtel on the hugely successful ratings hit Gogglebox and is going to work on a similar show called Common Sense, which takes a fly on the wall view into Australian office banter.
Another cost-cutting idea being speculated is pooling Ten's news resources with Sky News; Fox Sports News has done this in the past month.
The renegotiation of the Big Bash League, which has been a huge breadwinner for Ten, could also take the shape of a joint venture with Fox Sports if going it alone proves unviable.
Ten's close relations with News Corp, including commercial backing from Lachlan Murdoch (9% shareholding) and the Murdoch part-owned Foxtel (15%), provide the TV network with a certain level of security in the event of any looming receivership.
Ten's other major backers, James Packer and particularly WIN owner Bruce Gordon, are also not going to want their investments to evaporate into thin air.
In fact it's in nobody's interests for Ten to collapse and leave commercial free-to-air broadcasting to a duopoly of Nine or Seven because it would devalue the whole sector more than two major players stand to gain.
Ten's bigger challenge
There's going to be some short-term pain at Ten's Saunders Street HQ in Sydney over the next couple of years as the network transforms to a leaner broadcasting machine, but it has survived serious market challenges before and there's no reason to believe it cannot bounce back again.
Rival broadcasters have a similar focus on prudent cost control even if Seven and Nine have been better at turning ratings into revenue and profit.
The harsh reality is that no media company that invests significant amounts into creating original content in this country is finding the going easy in a trading environment of declining advertising dollars across most traditional media channels, particularly print and TV.
Audiences are still watching a lot of television, but viewing is fragmenting onto multiple devices, including digital media platforms that take billions of advertising dollars out of the Australian media industry without investing any of it back into professionally produced local content.
The challenge for Ten and others will be adapting to these consumer shifts and finding ways to better commercialise the transition to digital multiscreen viewing.
Ten's financial woes are real, but not a death knell and there are greater challenges ahead.