1) Truth is about confirmation, not fact
The behavioural economists call this confirmation bias - people attach more value to information that matches their prior perceptions rather than an objective measure of fact. It didn’t matter how many commentators pointed out factual inaccuracies - at a deeper level Trump confirmed people’s existing views, no matter how distasteful. There is one photo of a supporter holding up a banner that said “Trump 4 Truth”. That’s because in his mind, that was totally accurate.
2) Research – mind the gap
Much will be written about how the polls got it wrong, what those margins for error are, and how they can be justified. But any researcher worth their salt will remind you of the gap between what people say, and what people do.
We’re big fans of research - it’s a great source of ideas and can often provide that vital third party stimulus to a debate that breaks a deadlock. Most polls only publish data from “those who expressed an opinion”. This means that they ignore a large percentage of voters who are either unsure or secretive about the way they intend to vote. That explains the graph below, courtesy of the New York Times. Neuroscience technology can be used to identify the way people intend to vote, on a subconscious level. Measuring the subconscious is free of bias and provides a more accurate reading than stated intent.
3) Stop being so bloody positive
Again the behavioural economists will tell you that fear of loss is a stronger motivator than the promise of gain. And in future TED talks, when they want to prove this point to you, we’re pretty confident that the image on the screen behind them will be of Donald Trump. “Love Trumps Hate” was a great soundbite, but it didn’t resonate nearly as much as “Drain the Swamp”.
At a more micro level, we attended a focus group recently where a benefit was presented that had an obvious “gotcha” in it. And yet people loved it. They trusted it. They “respected its honesty”. Look back at what Trump’s supporters say, and you’ll see that repeated over and over.
4) Ignore the boomers at your peril
If baby boomers were excluded, there would be no Brexit. And Florida (and a bunch of other states) would have fallen blue.
Boomers have had the deciding vote their whole lives and that’s not going to stop now. When they were young and idealistic, we swung hippie with Kennedy. When they were building wealth and families, we swung yuppie with Reagan. When life was good and abundant in middle age, we ushered in the “caring” nineties with Clinton and Blair. But then the GFC happened and cast doubt over all of that. The bitterness that ensued plus the nostalgia that is characteristic of older age has swung us to the place of caution and fear we now find ourselves in.
The makers of the iPad know this. The makers of the Fitbit know this. If you want to tip the scales in your favour, the boomers still hold a valuable key.
5) Fish where the fish are
Many will debunk the fact that we can learn anything from Trump because it appears that Hillary won the popular vote. “It’s the system” you will say. Well here are the facts: life is a system. All those people lived in New York and California. If they were more evenly distributed we’d have a different outcome but we don’t.
The marketing equivalent of this is a loyalty scheme that discounts customers that weren’t going to defect from your brand anyway. It’s a pointless waste of money and could drive you broke in the process. Understand who you need to win with, and go there instead.
6) Don’t panic
It will be tempting in the coming weeks to brace for uncertainty - and put your more speculative, risky ventures on hold. Did Trump panic when that tape came out? No way! And nor should you. It really is time to soldier on, and be bolder than before.
If you’re unhappy with the news, you can choose to be mercenary about it, you could say that success is the best revenge. Or you can be philosophical about it, quote Gandhi and “be the change in the world you wish to see”.
We need a better vision for the future, and better people to deliver that vision, now more than ever. So while it’s impossible right now to carry on without regard, we must renew our purpose, get real, get savvy, and carry on regardless.
By Colin Jowell and Arron Child from innovation agency U Don't Know Us (UDKU).