Mark Frain.
The AdNews end of year Perspectives, looking back at 2024 and forward to next year.
Mark Frain, CEO, Foxtel Media
This year Australia has experienced the longest drawn-out cycle of a declining advertising market that I can remember. We’ve had no peaks to celebrate, just an endurance event with no signs of a definitive finish line.
In this current climate, executives are sticking with the most tried and trusted campaign methods. Brands are backing what they think works when it comes to their marketing approach, and most are reticent to make extreme decisions. Corporate Australia, and advertisers in general, are waiting for an economic catalyst to spur investment and go for growth.
Until we see a return to confidence in the overall economy, one that is likely tied to a reduction in interest rates – we’re unlikely to see a major shift in this sentiment.
As a result, throughout 2025, I expect to see agency groups and brand advertisers double down with trusted partners. Businesses with stable and consistent leadership who have shown their ability transform and meet the evolving needs of the market will reap the rewards. Trust will be driven by two key factors. Firstly, strong and enduring relationships. And secondly, by the ability of partners to share data, prove results, and demonstrate consistency.
In 2025, we’ll finally see the emergence of a true definition of “total television”. Freed from FTA only rhetoric, it will be redefined as an all-encompassing term that genuinely considers how Australian audiences access premium video content and more importantly how our customers view it.
This will partially be the result of media owners finally thinking beyond their own asset base and diving into what viewers actually want and how they watch video. 2025 will be the year that the advertising industry finally catches up with viewers – there will be no distinction between “TV” and “streaming” and the boundaries between “short-form” and “long-form” content will begin to increasingly blur.
As a result, there will be a fundamental shift to the order in which video assets are bought. We’ve spoken a lot this year at Foxtel Media about how 50% of our ads are now digital, but we’re also seeing more campaigns laying down video assets first and buying linear later in the piece. What a fascinating and rapid changing of the guard.
An industry shaping trend for coming year will be the explosion in premium video inventory on respected media channels, with advertising connected directly to data and return-on-investment metrics. This will help to inform the debate around the meaning of premium video. The industry will need to understand, articulate and prove what type of content and which channels deserve to be classified as premium. Expect this debate to rage on past 2025.
The coming year will also be one focused on measurement. More media owners and publishers, both in Australia and globally, will take strategic bets to try and grasp the moment when it comes to data-driven measurement. At Foxtel Media, we’ve been pretty active in this space, and I think we’ve given the market confidence to try new things.
There will also be more collaboration. The Video Futures Collective will expand, and hopefully branch out to establish itself as a leading global alliance of media, advertisers and agencies and other interested parties to help the industry navigate to a streaming-led future. It has been extremely rewarding so far, but the ongoing global enquiries the VFC is receiving point to even more exciting and game-changing future.
Hopefully as we move through 2025, we’ll see a shift in economic confidence that will breathe new life into the advertising market. When the cycle changes and the dollars start to flow more freely, expect to see people start to make bold moves, take risks and invest in exciting new campaigns and programs.
When this happens, the extremes will get even bigger. Those media businesses that have invested in their platform, transformed their operating model and have the measurement capabilities to prove ROI will be doubly rewarded. Customers want to work with business that are doing the same thing they’re doing – it gives them a point of connection and alignment. A rising tide won’t lift all ships equally, which is why 2025 is the year to invest in being fit and ready for the market to turn.
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