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The US trade war will inevitably wash up on Australia shores, squeezing the advertising market which, along with the economy, had been showing signs of recovery, according to analysts.
ASX-listed media groups, as analysts anticipate that the trade war will shrink Australian economic growth, are seeing fair value estimates of their company shares being cut back.
And forecasters are reducing their full year predictions for ad spend. IPG’s Magna cites a “decline in confidence” and a lack of economic visibility which may impact marketing and advertising budgets in the short term.
Tariffs aren't a big deal for Australia, with a flat 10% imposed by the US, but slower global growth is, according to analysts at Jarden.
“Expectations for slower economic growth globally and high uncertainty will likely dampen domestic growth in Australia, delaying the expected recovery in private spending,” the analysts said.
And any economic slowdown in China, Australia’s major trading partner, will cause more than ripples here.
“US tariffs appear likely to dampen Australian GDP growth over the next few years, but the magnitude is anyone's guess,” writes Morningstar’s Brian Han in a note to clients.
“The quantum and implementation timing of tariffs is in flux, and any mitigating monetary or fiscal response is difficult to predict. As such, economic uncertainty reigns.”
Advertising accounts for 60% plus of the revenue of ANZ media groups covered by Morningstar.
“The two key drivers of advertising spending are consumer sentiment and corporate confidence, and the current jittery macroeconomic environment is conducive to neither,” said Han.
This is echoed by Shai Luft, co-founder and COO at Bench Media.
“Brands are pausing campaigns, retailers are reassessing stock and pricing strategies, and media budgets are being rewritten on the fly,” he said.
“Confidence is crumbling, not just in financial markets, but in households around the world.
“And if you’re in media or marketing, you’re already feeling the effects where it hurts most: indecision, delays, and disappearing dollars.”
Australia might not be a high priority on Trump’s trade fury but when the global economy gets rattled, it shakes here as well.
“Tariffs like these tighten margins, shift manufacturing costs, and unsettle investor confidence, none of which bodes well for brand campaigns or media budgets,” Luft said
“Already, some of Australia’s biggest retailers - think Kmart, Bunnings, Big W - are preparing for price hikes and potential stock shortages as Chinese suppliers grapple with export constraints and pass those pressures downstream.
“Expect that to trickle into marketing teams too, where ‘launch timing’ and ‘campaign strategy’ suddenly become moving targets.”
Morningstar has cut its fair value estimates by 5% to $2.70 for Nine Entertainment, 19% to $0.30 for Seven West Media and 10% to $0.90 for broadcaster SCA.
"Cost reductions are in full swing for all these three media companies," said Han. "Unfortunately, more may be needed to
combat the likely revenue damage from precarious marketer confidence and consumer sentiment.
Marketers need to take careful stock with the sudden arrival of risks once considered unlikely.
Global consultancy Forrester urges marketers to resist reactive decisions, such as cost cutting, that are likely to disrupt the delicate balance between short-term and sustainable long-term growth
“The ongoing tariff negotiations on imports from all APAC countries has introduced significant uncertainty into the market, with the full ramifications yet to unfold,” said Frederic Giron, VP, senior research director, Forrester.
“In this volatile environment, it is imperative for business and tech leaders to engage in comprehensive scenario planning to anticipate various outcomes and develop adaptive strategies that ensure organizational resilience.
“By proactively preparing for multiple contingencies, APAC organizations can navigate the complexities of the evolving trade landscape effectively.”
Forrester analysts recommend marketers reaffirm brand value and prioritise more stable market segments in the face of uncertainty from the global trade war.
Understanding and prioritising which customer segments to serve will help leaders adjust their value proposition to reflect volatility shifts.
This includes reducing duplicative technologies and non-strategic operational costs and continuously monitoring buyer and customer behaviours.
“Changing business buyer behaviour is rendering traditional go-to-market processes obsolete,” according to the analysis by Forrester.
“The constant volatility has upended carefully crafted strategies, budgets, and priorities and has left B2B leaders feeling unsure and overwhelmed — but creates new opportunities for growth.
“It’s time to improve focus, optimise resources, commit to deliberate change leadership, and embrace enterprise risk management.
“Take these actions and you won’t just overcome the chaos — you'll thrive within it.”
The analysts say B2B leaders face mounting pressure to help their companies grow and become more profitable, all with constrained resources.
And successful leaders will stay focused on creating buyer value through a revenue process transformation.
According to Forrester’s Marketing Survey, 2025, B2B marketing decision-makers already see “adapting for changing buying behaviours” as their most important priority over the next 12 months.
Some lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic may be of use. However, every crisis has its own context that requires its own response.
“Today’s conditions represent a poly-crisis that requires proactive scenario and contingency planning, a change in the pace of decision-making, and vigilance for compliance,” the analysts write in a briefing.
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