Magna has cut its 2020 forecasts for ad spend as the coronavirus squeezes businesses in many industry sectors.
The IPG unit now expects a 2.8% fall in US ad sales this year. It had previously predicted 6.6% growth.
Modelling suggests global advertising spending would shrink by 6% in 2020 if economic growth is zero, says Magna.
But many market economists are forecasting worse, a deep dive into negative economic territory for the June quarter.
"The COVID-19 situation is unprecedented, but the closest historical equivalent would be the combination of the Great Recession and the weeks following the terrorist attacks of 9/11," says Magna.
Many brands cut TV spend for weeks after 9/11.
But the brands which upped TV spending outperformed over the next few months.
"Whether or not consumers are in the right mindset to buy your products during a crisis, whether or not your product is even available in shops during that crisis, consumers like a brand that shares their will to resume normal life and normal business as soon as possible," Magna says.
"Contrarian marketers willing to hold or increase share of voice during a crisis, while competitors withdraw, can win significant market share for a relatively low investment, as media costs typically slow down when demand dwindles."
Here's Magna take on each sector:
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