Australia's total advertising revenue will grow 3.8% to AUD27.7 billion in 2024, according to analysis by MAGNA.
The forecast is more upbeat than MAGNA's mid year prediction of 3% growth for 2024.
These numbers showing slowing growth compared to a stellar 7% post-COVID restrictions jump in 2022.
The latest analysis shows digital media owners' advertising revenues forecast to rise 7.2% to AUD 21.1 billion next year.
Television advertising revenues are forecast to drop 11.9% to AUD 3.5 billion.
“In 2023 Australia has seen linear ad formats struggling with economic uncertainty and trading weakness," says Ros Allison, head of production & Innovation, Magna Australia.
"Tipping point now evident for linear TV as previously inelastic costs become less resilient, and revenues begin to follow audiences.
“We expect the Australian market to be subdued but positive into 2024, with easing inflation starting to loosen monetary policy.
"Accelerating growth for digital channels, including those owned by traditional media owners. New measurement metrics, continued digitisation and format innovation driving growth.”
MAGNA forecasts show 2024 digital Search advertising revenue in Australia 4.6% higher at AUD 10.3 billion, social media advertising up 13.3% to AUD 7.1 billion and digital video advertising revenues up +6.3% to AUD 2.4 billion.
Static display advertising revenue is expected to fall 1.8%. Mobile advertising will continue to dominate, constituting 74% of total digital advertising budgets.
Traditional media owners are projected to see a 2.9% drop to AUD 6.7 billion in advertising revenue.
Looking ahead to 2028, Australia's total advertising revenues are expected to grow by 5.8% annually, with digital media owners' advertising revenues increasing by 8.1% a year and traditional media owners' advertising revenues falling by 2.7% a year.
By 2028, Australia is projected to be the 5th largest global market in total ad spending.
In 2028, ad revenues per capita are anticipated to be $852, maintaining Australia's position as the second highest-ranked market globally.
Digital media is forecast to represent 83% of total advertiser budgets, up from 74% in 2023, while television's share is expected to decrease to 7%, down from 15% in 2023.
MAGNA's forecasts:
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