US-based streaming services HBO Max and Peacock, with strong content strategies and global growth ambitions, have the potential to expand into Australia, media buyers predict.
But the market growth could be small, as the Australian ecosystem is already competitive which pushed down advertising prices.
Right now Australians have Netflix, Stan, Disney+, Optus Sport, Amazon Prime, Kayo, Paramount, Apple TV and Binge just on streaming alone.
For example, when Netflix launched 18 months ago CPM started at $100-$150 wanting commitments of $300,000. Now it has come down to around $60 CPM with buyers expecting the cost to drop further.
There is opportunity though for platforms that identify and fill specific content gaps like sports, niche genres could gain a foothold, Havas national head of partnerships and adtech, Kevin Fernandes said.
“Undoubtedly, those investing in local engaging Australian content production will have an edge in attracting subscribers,” Fernandes told AdNews.
For example, Paramount and Amazon’s existing advertising relationships within Australia helped stimulate its streaming launch uptake, rather than Netflix, Mindshare national head of investment Nik Doble said.
But the fight for ad dollars might deter some companies.
Disney+ has been expected to add ads for a while now, buyers predict this to be in the next six to 12 months.
But when asked by AdNews Disney had no update on the launch.
Last year Warner Bros. Discovery decided against launching its own streaming platform in Australia in 2024.
But the others have reported that HBO could be expected as early as the first three months of 2025, to coincide with a packed content schedule.
HBO declined to comment when asked about an Australian launch.
HBO in Australia would also cause problems for Foxtel as its streaming platform Binge has the licence to HBO programs
Disney already owns two advertising-supported platforms, being Hulu and ESPN+, both are not available in Australia.
Despite being globally owned, Paramount was the first local free-to-air network to enable advertising within their subscription product.
So certainly Nine will be watching intently with an eye on the future of Stan and whether they contemplate pulling the ad lever on Stan, Doble said.
China-based services such as Tencent could also crack into the Australian market, Orange Line head of media Gavin Chew said.
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