GroupM has raised its 2021 US advertising forecast to 15% ex-political growth from 12%.
The upward revision is due to stronger-than-expected economic growth and expanding numbers of small businesses.
GroupM says 2021 should end the year with 6% more activity than in the last non-pandemic year of 2019.
This is a significant revision, showing the growing strength of the ad market. Most analysts have been forecasting a return to 2019 levels of ad spend sometime in 2022.
“Our upgrade of expectations is primarily a reflection of the healthier-than-expected recovery of the economy from the depths of the pandemic paired with the significant impact of fiscal stimulus the federal government is providing to consumers,” says GroupM.
“Digital advertising is the primary beneficiary of trends impacting the economy, both because new small businesses are forming at a record pace (even if collectively they may be losing share of activity within the economy) and because large businesses are increasingly focused on e-commerce, with spending shifts to digital media generally aligning with this trend.”
Digital advertising is driving growth. GroupM estimates 22% growth in 2021 off of the 2020s estimated 7.3% rate of growth, excluding political advertising.
Television remains resilient 9.3% growth forecasts in national TV, including related connected TV and other similar advertising activity.
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