Advertising spend will be flat in 2024, according to the latest forecast by GroupM.
The media agency group predicts 0.9% growth in 2024 in Australia from just 0.2% in 2023.
The market is expected to be weaker in the first half before staging a recovery.
The forecast is weaker than that of other forecasters, including MAGNA (3.8% in 2024) and dentsu (2.3%).
“Despite significant economic pressures, we anticipate 2023 will deliver a broadly flat year for the industry, but there have been key events driving growth," says Melissa Hey, GroupM Australia chief investment officer.
"The enduring popularity of VOD services, the Barbieheimer effect on Cinema, and the strength of the out-of-home market provided pockets of growth, while Social continues to perform and new entrants in the retail media space are accelerating growth.
“The impact of higher living costs and inflation, putting pressure on increased mortgages’ is affecting multiple sectors in the market, including the retail environment.
"We anticipate cautious spending by consumers across key sales periods as we lead into 2024. Unknown at this stage is the fallout from the current Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, which are likely to continue to impact the global economy.
“Against this backdrop, we expect the market will remain flat through the first half of next year, with conditions expected to ease in the second half of the year, and more robust growth levels anticipated in the years ahead.”
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