Ben Shepherd, in his newsletter Signal, looks at the outlook for Black Friday, the workers powering the digital platforms and poses the question: Can digital advertising be fixed?
What’s new:
Black Friday is taking place this Friday and its performance will be closely monitored as both an indicator of the Christmas retail period and a wider indication of household spending confidence. This year we have seen a pronounced increased in ‘pre–Black Friday’ sales and initiatives, as brands seek to take share of consumer wallets by offering steep discounts earlier than the traditional date. The Australian Retail Association is predicting Black Friday sales will be up 3% in dollar terms in 2024 to a combined $6.36 billion. Adjusted for inflation this would represent a decline on the prior year.
Why it matters:
Black Friday has seen significant increases over the past 6-7 years and had been a reliable Q4 revenue booster for many retailers and a prime source of growth as consumers added a new ‘spending occasion’ to the repertoire. US forecasts are in line with Australian forecasts (topline dollar growth but declined in the context of inflation) and the broad sentiment for Australia and the US is that Christmas sales more broadly will be at the same level as 2022. Still, Black Friday represents a meaningful spending occasion for those who engage – BCG forecast that the average Black Friday shopper will spend around $410 USD on Black Friday specific purchases, with many of these Christmas shopping for others.
Why it matters:
Black Friday has seen significant increases over the past 6-7 years and had been a reliable Q4 revenue booster for many retailers and a prime source of growth as consumers added a new ‘spending occasion’ to the repertoire. US forecasts are in line with Australian forecasts (topline dollar growth but declined in the context of inflation) and the broad sentiment for Australia and the US is that Christmas sales more broadly will be at the same level as 2022. Still, Black Friday represents a meaningful spending occasion for those who engage – BCG forecast that the average Black Friday shopper will spend around $410 USD on Black Friday specific purchases, with many of these Christmas shopping for others.
Read Signal HERE.
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