ARN radio revenue was up 7% in the September quarter but the outlook for the last three months of the year is softer.
HT&E gave a brief trading update during a presentation to an investor conference run by investment bank UBS.
The company said radio revenues for the second half to December were pacing at low to mid-single digit growth on strong comparatives to 2021.
Costs remain in line with previous guidance.
Analysts at UBS say data from radio industry body Commercial Radio Australia indicates the metropolitan radio ad market grew by +7% in October and by +10% on the September quarter.
"Structurally we continue to hold the view that -- with listening trends holding up and radio's exposure to categories more impacted by COVID-19 (e.g. automotive brand, local direct) -- radio as a category can grow off its current base, aided by growth in streaming & podcasting.
"However our base case does not assume a return to pre-COVID levels on a three year view."
UBS assumes a slowdown in metro radio ad spend growth in the half year to June 2023 to 2% versus 4.5% in the half to December 2022.
At Macquarie, analysts described the ARN September quarter as "solid".
However, in a note to clients: "Early days but it appears radio is not as resilient as initially thought."
They wrote: " ... the recent negotiation between agencies and advertisers appears to have resulted in more caution for advertising in 4Q. This is consistent with our thesis around further downgrades."
The trading outlook from HT&E and Nine Entertainment were both slightly below industry/company expectations but in line with Macquarie's.
The analysts say: "While we are only at the initial stages of an ad market moderation, it appears radio is less resilient than
initially thought."
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