Brands will need to spend significantly more next year for the same inventory if they keep their media plans the same, according to analysis of the work of key forecasters by the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA).
The latest WFA Outlook report, a poll of media price inflation forecasts, shows 2024 numbers have picked up slightly to 3.3% now from 3.1% forecast in April, with increases in US and Western Europe offsetting forecasted reductions in China and Japan.
In Australia, media price inflation is 4.2% for 2024, rising to 4.7% next year but with growth slowing to 3% in 2026.
The global rate is expected to rise to 3.7% next year from 3.3% this year but jump to 4.6% in 2026.
The report forecasts that nine of the top 10 global media markets will see greater media price inflation in 2025 than 2024, led by the US rising from 2.1% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025. The one exception is the UK, but signs of rising prices are present there as well.
Forecasters on average revised up their 2024 inflation forecasts by more than a full percentage point to (3.9% from 2.8%) between April and August this year.
“We can see how the forecasted economic improvement in 2025 feeds through into forecasted increases in media price inflation,” said Tom Ashby, global lead, media services at WFA.
“Whilst the global aggregated figures quoted will not apply equally to every advertiser or
media owner, the data sheet offers valuable insights for planners to leverage as they
move deeper into the 2025 planning process.”
WFA Outlook is compiled from aggregated media price forecasts provided by nine participants (including Havas, Publicis, OMG, Magna, dentsu) covering 14 media channels across 41 markets.
The potential good news for planners is that, with exceptions, media prices are generally
forecast to rise by mid-to-high single digits for most media channels in most markets.
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