Julia Gillard's decision to call the federal election on 14 September will trigger a scramble among agencies and advertisers to lock in inventory before and around the election. Not to mention the political parties. Some media agencies are already advising clients to commit to schedules eight months ahead of the vote. Others have claimed that it is too early to start negotiations. Despite those mixed signals, the game is on.
In terms of airtime, Aegis Pacific executive chairman Harold Mitchell said it will be a seller's market by the time the elections arrive, but not in the short term. "Some might rush out and buy airtime, but the networks will see them coming," he told AdNews. Eight months was long enough to see them coming, he said.
Others followed that line. Maxus trading director Nathan Cook said the firm's negotiations were "still shorter term".
MEC's Seb Rennie agreed, although major sponsors would be starting to scramble to lock down core properties. "If you were a major sponsor of the X-factor, which is airing around that time, you would certainly be having those conversations now," he said. "But if you were a casual advertiser, it is too early." Rennie said there was no need to panic and that "no dollars had been approved" as far out as the election period. He said negotiations over core property would step up around 20 weeks out and intensify around three months ahead of the vote.
Peter Wiltshire, co-director of group sales and marketing at Nine Entertainment also claimed it was "too soon" for negotiations. "The country has been taken by surprise, we will hear plans over the next few days." But he added that there would be "some early activity".
Wiltshire said elections were normally good for advertising but did "not necessarily herald a change in fortunes" for the flat market. He disputed suggestions by some analysts that the election would lead to a 1 per cent boost to the overall Australian advertising market.
Most commentators suggested that the extra minute an hour allowed during election times would not be sufficient to meet demand at the end game. Ad free debates would also cause upward price pressure. Political, news and current affairs programmes would be the obvious winners.
Cook said newspapers should also see "some welcome stabilisation". But Mitchell suggested that "nobody would be a winner" from such a long lead time due to business uncertainty ahead of the result. Apart from digital and social media, with "some very clever digital ideas" likely to swing into play "straight away, including mobile". Cook, Rennie and Wiltshire agreed. "Digital is the only winner full stop," said Wiltshire.
Mitchell said that data would play a key role in determining the winner. He cited the Obama campaign's use of data to win over floating voters in swing states. "Eight months is enough for the parties to pick off voters one by one." He said it would be interesting to see how the parties turned that data into direct marketing.
While some firms will pay the election premium, others will avoid the period and capitalise on the remainder of the year, according to most commentators, with a boom likely to follow the vote as a result.
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