Ad spend will grow 9.1% this year in Australia, according to Zenith’s latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts.
This is better than estimates done late last year but the lift from the depths of the pandemic will not reach 2019 levels and still be behind by around 5%.
Globally, Zenith says ad spend will exceed the pre-pandemic peak by 6% this year. Global advertising expenditure will grow 11.2% in 2021, driven by exceptional demand for performance-led ecommerce advertising and brand advertising on online video.
“The adspend recovery this year has been quicker and stronger than expected, particularly across television and digital," says Zenith’s national head of investment, Elizabeth Baker.
"We have yet to understand what, if any, impact the latest series of lockdown restrictions will have on ad revenue and our forecasts are predicated on an assumption that restrictions will be relatively short-lived and will not lead to another media revenue crash, as seen in 2020.
"It’s likely that TV will reach 2019 levels of investment, while digital was the only channel not to decline in 2020 and is continuing to surge in 2021.
"Other channels may not see 2019 levels of ad spend until 2023."
Australia is forecast to see digital ad spend grow by 6.6% compared to last year, and rise 8.8% from pre-COVID 2019.
Joshua Lee, Zenith’s national head of digital & data: "This gives confidence that digital consumption and the total internet market (excluding gains from BVOD and streaming audio) is poised for sustained growth of 5-6% over the next three years.
“Although search growth has slowed at 2-3% versus 9% pre-COVID, performance media spend is being diversified into growth channels like ecommerce marketplaces and social platforms catering to inspiration and shoppable experiences.
"With a rising emphasis on mid- to-lower funnel, building brands across all channels should not be forgotten and seen as an advantage in the shift to digital commerce.
"Leaning into high attention and emotion eliciting channels, like online video and social media, can help brands consistently create future demand as the market fully recovers and accrues competition."
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