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Australian agencies see trade wars and changes to media ownership ahead following the US election result.
Donald Trump secured 312 electoral college votes, exceeding the benchmark of 270 to become president for the second time.
Analyst Steve Allen, Pearman’s director of strategy and research, believes Trump’s re-election will have “little direct effect” though sentiment will likely affect more.
“Trump is seen as unpredictable, erratic and dangerous. The American economy is all he principally cares about, and this is where he won the election. Hip pocket sentiment,” he told AdNews.
The Republican has promised to cut taxes, deport illegal immigrants en masse and slap tariffs on imports.
His election platform made a big case for 10% to 20% tariffs on all imported goods and steeper rates for Chinese products and electric vehicles.
Allen said the US is Australia’s fifth largest export nation with $AU12.59B (2023), so any trade war with China would have a knock-on effect.
“While the direct effect of those exporters would not be material in the media and advertising industries, as that sector of the economy are not big advertisers, sentiment and confidence will wane,” he said.
“The Trump Government policies would also most likely change global money markets, with a flow on to interest rates moving upwards.”
Allen said a strong USA, and its economy, is “very good” but there will likely be more downsides than upsides for Australia.
“Things will likely remain subdued in our marketplace, just as some green shoots were emerging,” she said.
“However, the effects of the likely changes are about a year away.”
Bench Media chief operations officer Shai Luft believes there are three main areas that will be impacted by Trump's victory - tech giants, media ownership, and economic policy.
“Trump has spoken extensively about the need to break up Google’s market monopoly,” he told AdNews.
“A Trump win gives backwind to X given the affiliation with Elon Musk and Trump’s own social media network and interests.
“Under Trump, Amazon will also face headwinds as Trump has not hidden his distaste for Bezos and his growing empire.”
Trump’s team is likely to push for changes to media ownership regulations that could allow further media consolidation, according to Luft.
“This is likely to harm advertisers due to larger networks controlling smaller outlets and creating stronger market power under larger media conglomerates, especially those leaning towards right wing values,” he said.
Luft believes a Trump administration will favour tax cuts and be perceived as “good for business” and consumer sentiment.
“You only need to look at the S&P 500 which enjoyed a compound annual growth rate of 12.1% from Trump’s surprise election in November 2016,” he said.
“Stock markets reacted very favourably as the odds increased for a Trump win but then again, anything could happen with Trump at the helm.”
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