Global advertising spend is forecast to grow 10.5% to $1.07 trillion this year, the best performance in six years if the post-COVID recovery of 2021 (+27.9%) is disregarded, according to WARC.
Ad spend growth is also anticipated next year (+7.2%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global ad market worth $1.23trn.
Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade, and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014.
Three companies – Meta, Amazon and Alphabet – account for more than 70% of this incremental spend. This trifecta is expected to attract 43.6% of all advertising spend this year, rising to a share over 46% by 2026.
When measured in local currency – so as to exclude the distorting effect of exchange rate fluctuations – Australia’s ad market is expanding by 2.0%, a modest but welcome change of fortunes following flat (+0.3%) growth in 2023.
WARC study is based on data from 100 markets, and shows that "pureplay" (i.e. online only) internet companies are set to record a 14% rise in advertising revenue this year, reaching a total of $735.7bn.
In total, almost nine in every ten (88.5%) incremental dollars spent on advertising this year will go to online-only businesses, with half (52.9%) being paid to Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Taken together, pureplay platforms are set to account for over 70% of all advertising spend worldwide next year.
Retail media (+21.3%), social media (+14.2%) and search (+12.1%) are set to lead digital growth in 2024, with these three sectors alone accounting for over 85% of online spend and almost three in every five (58.7%) incremental dollars spent on advertising worldwide this year.
All are benefiting from the increased adoption of AI-driven ad services and growing appreciation of first party data.
WARC director of data, intelligence and forecasting James McDonald said the global ad market has doubled in size over the last decade, with advertising investment growing almost three times faster than economic output since 2014.
"With retail media expected to lead ad spend growth over the coming years, and with new, diverse players emerging in ad selling – from Uber to Chase – we are once again seeing the value of first party data in targeting the right person with the right message at the right time. Such data, combined with new AI enhancements, will constitute the fabric of the advertising industry for the next decade and beyond," McDonald said.
Key findings WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25:
MEDIA TRENDS: Global ad spend is forecast to rise 10.5% this year to a total of $1.07trn, and then 7.2% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026; social, retail media and CTV to lead growth
At $241.8bn in 2024, social media is the largest single advertising channel measured in WARC’s study, having overtaken search (excl. retail media) for the first time last year. It accounts for 22.6% of all global ad spend this year and is forecast to rise to a share of 23.6% by the end of 2026.
Within social, Meta is the largest individual player, commanding 62.6% of the market this year. Its share is being eroded however, most notably by Douyin and TikTok owner Bytedance, which now draws a fifth (20.1%) of all social spend, up from a share of just 9.3% five years ago. TikTok is on course to account for over half of its parent-company’s advertising revenue for the first time next year with estimated ad billings over $28bn, though uncertainty remains around the platform’s future in the US – its largest market by far with 170m monthly active users.
The main social platforms have reported a fillip from new, AI-enabled services during the first half of 2024, a trend that is set to underpin the advertising industry at large over the coming years. Over half of all AI-enabled spend – defined as involving some form of recommendation algorithm, natural language processing or search optimisation – today occurs in the social media sector.
Search advertising (excluding retail media) accounts for 21.8% of global advertising spend, at a forecast total of $223.8bn this year. Its share has consistently grown since WARC began monitoring the sector in 2013, though it is set to plateau in 2026 as more purchase journeys begin in retail media environments and social commerce begins to realise its potential outside of Asia. Another potential headwind may be the rise of AI-driven search, and uncertainty around what the ad experience will look like for consumers more familiar with text-based search experiences.
Google accounts for more than four-fifths (84.0%) of the global search market, with its paid search revenue set to top $200bn for the first time next year. Google’s share rises to over 90% if China is excluded, a position of dominance which this month led a US judge to rule the company in breach of antitrust laws.
Retail media is expected to account for 14.3% of global ad spend this year – a total of $152.6bn – which is double the share recorded in 2019 before the pandemic contributed to an exceptional growth spurt. Indeed, retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing channel over at least the next three years.
Amazon is the dominant global player, with anticipated ad revenue (excluding Twitch and Prime Video) of $55.9bn equivalent to more than a third (36.6%) of all retail media spend and over two-thirds excluding China this year. While competition is heating up, such billings eclipse the near $4bn Walmart is due to net in 2024 and the $1bn ad business Uber is building, while Amazon is also due to have surpassed Alibaba by ad revenue for the first time this year.
CTV is on course to be worth $35.3bn to advertisers this year, roughly a quarter of the size of the linear TV market. Growth is rapid; CTV spend is expected to rise 19.6% and is set to account for two-thirds of all growth in the video (linear + CTV) market this year, and all growth in 2025. By 2026, CTV is projected to account for almost a quarter (23.9%) of all video ad spend, at $46.3bn.
Netflix is the largest streaming provider globally, with 277.6m subscribers worldwide in Q2 2024. However, its global advertising business is unlikely to grow too far beyond $1bn this year. YouTube’s ad income – which we do not yet classify as CTV – is expected to rise 14.3% to $36.0bn this year. Further, YouTube’s ad revenue is set to top $45bn globally by 2026, almost as much as the entirety of the global CTV industry at that time.
Legacy media, encompassing print publishing, broadcast radio, linear TV, cinema and out of home (OOH), now collectively account for a quarter (25.3%) of total advertising spend, having recorded a dip in share in each of the last 15 years.
Advertising spend on legacy media is expected to total $270.5bn this year, representing a 1.5% rise from 2023. Much of this growth can be attributed to US political spending; with this removed legacy media are, collectively, set to record a 0.5% decline in advertiser investment in 2024.
Linear TV spend is expected to grow by 1.9% this year, its best performance since 2014 if the post-Covid recovery year of 2021 (+12.7%) were excluded. The market is flat (+0.1%), however, excluding US political spend. Out of home (+7.2%) and cinema (+6.1%) will see some growth this year, though radio (-2.3%) is expected to record its third consecutive year of decline. Newsbrands (-3.3%) and magazine brands (-3.4%) are also due to see losses across print and online editions.
PRODUCT SECTOR TRENDS:
Advertising spend during the 2024 US presidential election is on course to top $15bn for the first time, with an expected total of $15.8bn up by over 40% on the previous cycle in 2020. Spend had been lagging the 2020 total earlier this year, but the surprise decision to change the Democratic candidate has led to an influx in spending in order to reposition the new ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. This shift is perhaps most pronounced online: political spending on social media is tracking 27.4% higher in Q3 2024 versus Q2 2024, with social spending by both main parties on course to reach $3.6bn this year.
Technology & Electronics (+13.2%), Alcoholic Drinks (+12.2%) and Clothing & Accessories (+11.1%) are forecast to lead ad spend growth among consumer-facing products in 2025, though Business & Industrial, the second-largest category, is expected to be the fastest-growing category overall next year (+18.2%), as budgets unlock during a period of comparatively favourable economic and trading conditions.
The Nicotine category is also growing rapidly, albeit from a low base; it is the smallest of the 19 product categories monitored by WARC at $13.0bn in 2024. Spend is set to grow 56% over the three years to 2026 – reaching a total of $17.2bn – driven almost entirely by vape products which skew heavily towards online advertising.
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