Early numbers from media agencies for July show a substantial drop in metropolitan television bookings.
The latest Standard media Index (SMI), available to subscribers but not yet made public, shows metro TV down 17%.
However, July is being compared to a stellar month in 2021, a bumper advertising market, when TV was up more than 40% compared to July 2020.
Forward pacing data indicates a slowing in August and, so far, for September.
Media agencies see a flattening in the market but a solid calendar year. The networks themselves remain upbeat.
Seven West Media, announcing its best results in a decade, says the current September quarter is down around 2%.
However, James Warburton, CEO of Seven West Media, says the fiscal year started strongly with the Commonwealth Games and that the December quarter is looking “robust”.
“They were extremely impressive,” he said when briefing analysts on full year results. “We took a very large slice of the market through July and August.”
Jeff Howard, CFO at Seven West Media, told the briefing: “Bookings from second quarter perspective … we're seeing visibility around six to eight weeks. So it's relatively early for October.
“Obviously November and first half December, the two biggest months of the year from a booking perspective.”
Nine is due to report its results next week.
Market analysts are anticipating a slowing in ad spend growth as consumers pull back from spending.
Brian Han, director, Morningstar, on Seven's results: "The cooling TV advertising market in fiscal 2023 to-date may be causing some consternation.
"However, it is down just 2% year to year (or 7% adjusting for Tokyo Olympics) from the white-hot levels of a year ago and lengthening forward bookings (six to eight weeks) shows continuing marketer resilience."
Macquarie issued a research note last month headed: “Ad markets still solid (for now)”.
“ …outlook more clouded in our view. The bottom trough is yet to come for the sector.”
Canaccord Genuity earlier this month: “Media stocks have been hit hard over the last six months, declining significantly in absolute terms and underperforming the Small Ordinaries.
“Almost all the published data around industry revenues have been positive for CY22 so far, so the market seems to have moved on the sector ahead of what it anticipates to be a slowdown in consumer spending.”
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