Market analysts see the advertising market growing beyond pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year.
Advertising agency feedback suggests that the calendar year total advertising market will reach and then pass 2019, says Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients.
The advertising industry is in the middle of a strong December quarter, despite October SMI (Standard Media Index) numbers for television expected to be weak compared to last year.
According to early data, not yet released publicly, metro TV was down 8% in October but that is compared to last year when AFL and NRL finals were held in October.
The two ASX-listed networks are upbeat about the television advertising market.
Nine, a trading update to its AGM, expects metropolitan television advertising revenue to grow 15% in the December quarter.
Seven West Media says the advertising market has improved but is still volatile.
Here's Macquarie's forecast:
JP Morgan: “Nine and Seven have both provided positive AGM trading updates, highlighting the resilience of traditional media platforms and the potential for growth in their respective digital opportunities.”
Analysts at UBS point to strength in traditional media ad markets generally plus the addition of negotiated content revenue from Facebook and Google deals to drive earning growth.
And digital earnings are continuing to grow.
Goldman Sachs says industry feedback suggests that the total 2021 calendar year market may pass 2019 levels. The analysts now think 101% of the 2019 calendar year level.
That would mean 110% for TV and 70% for out-of-home.
The Goldman Sachs analysts see the TV market remaining robust in the short term. They have increased their financial year growth forecasts to +4%, from +3%.
“This growth is expected to be partly driven by tailwinds from travel, international and government (federal election) segments, with a mix shift in supply to OOH/Radio as audiences recover,” the analysts say.
The analysts say their agency contacts suggest that current elevated advertising prices are likely to persist into 2022, driven by heightened demand from a coming national election, resumption of international travel and upside from international advertisers.
The analysts say the OOH market is expected to recover strongly as audiences return post Sydney-Melbourne lockdowns.
Media buyers have greater confidence due to the lessened risk of further lockdowns. In the meantime, prices are high.
“In the next 24 months we see greatest upside in BVOD and OOH,” write the analysts.
“With BVOD benefiting from an acceleration in the subscriber base following the Summer Olympics and the scheduling of the Winter olympics next February, while OOH audiences return post lockdowns.”
oOh! Pulse data suggests 60% to 70% of 2019 audience levels in August/September.
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