Industry insiders see the hot advertising market continuing despite some settling with the end of long term lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne.
The value of national marketer ad spend jumped 15.5% in September, according to analysis by SMI (Standard Media Index).
The result is 9.3% below pre-pandemic September 2019 but that will change as outdoor media comes fully online.
"The market is still hot," says Clare Zappia, Ave C’s Investment Director.
"As these lockdowns were the longest yet, we have seen a bottleneck of advertisers returning to the market, securing ad space in advance – particularly as we move into the retail season."
Natasha Pelly, Media Analytics Director, Publicis Media Exchange: “We do expect ad spend to hit 2019 levels by the end of the year, driven by the monumental growth of digital, and by linear Metro TV, which has enjoyed a strong resurgence this year."
Clare Zappia at Ave C: "It’s unsurprising to see OOH has been impacted in September by the Sydney and Melbourne lockdowns and is showing the lowest growth of all channels (3.8% YOY) in the last few months. It was expected that TV and Digital would be the driving force of growth in September vs YOY and 2019.
"From October onwards, we see a settling of the market fluctuations we’ve become used to over the last two years. i.e. the snap lockdowns, sudden changes in audience mobility and viewing habits across each of the major cities, major sporting events being moved and the changing consumer confidence (which last week was 7.1 points higher than the same week a year ago).
"This means the days of over investment in TV and digital are numbered and we will see ad spend distribute more naturally across other mediums as we normalise our daily habits.
"Broadcast channels such as TV and BVOD are under the highest demand with inventory booked out as far as December with the retail push, and many fixed OOH assets are being secured as we speak.
"So while SMI this month points to a market that seems to be settling, the horse has bolted for the demand this year. If you’re not negotiating for 2021, you better get a move on.
Natasha Pelly at Publicis Media Exchange: “While the latest SMI figures still demonstrate strong growth vs. 2020, there has been a slowdown in demand compared to prior months. In July and August, the market was booming, growing 7% and 11% respectively vs. 2019. This month, the equivalent figure is -3%, demonstrating the impact that recent lockdowns have had on the economic outlook, consumer confidence and, in turn, ad spend.
"Recent announcements regarding the consolidation of Seven and Prime, and the ability to buy Regional WIN via Network Nine’s dynamic platform, 9Galaxy, should also help drive revenue into regional markets next year.
“For outdoor and cinema, recovery is proving much slower, but with vaccination rates increasing and lockdown restrictions loosening, we hope to see a cash injection in the latter months of the year.
"For cinema, the upcoming slate of blockbuster releases, including No Time to Die, Matrix: Resurrections, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, The Eternals and Spider-Man: No Way Home, should reignite advertiser spend in the channel.”
Scott McCarthy, senior performance specialist at Alpha Digital said: "What we've seen in market aligns with the SMI data; median spend across clients has increased around 20 per cent in digital.
"However there's also been a proportionate increase in average CPM's and CPC's across both search and social, ranging from 10-25 per cent over the Sept-Oct 2021 in comparison with the same period in 2020.
“The YOY comparison is largely due to the fact that marketing and advertising budgets were frozen last year, and even into FY21 brands were still quite conservative with their spending.
“Some industries were able to capitalise on increased disposable spending in lockdown, but now with almost all industries returning to some level of new normal it is great to see a rebound.
“We have seen many clients focus on TV, catch up TV and digital media through September as a safe media option, while WFH is still a preferred option and schools had not fully returned.”
Sam Buchanan, General Manager, IMAA: "While it (September) is a truly remarkable result, it's not surprising. As long as there is a high level of disposable income and consumer confidence we will continue to see growth.
"The appetite for digital video will continue to rise and reflects what we see in the IMAA Pulse Survey. All indicators from the independent sector are extremely encouraging and we anticipate that the run home to the end of the year will be even stronger."
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